اثر الثقة والتفاؤل المفرطين وسلوك القطيع في عملية اتخاذ القرار الاستثماري - دراسة تطبيقية في سوق العراق للاوراق المالية
الكلمات المفتاحية:
سوق العراق للاوراق المالية، القرار الاستثماري، سلوك القطيعالملخص
إن تحليل وتفسير التغيرات الحاصلة في أسعار الموجودات في الاسواق المالية اعتمد ولمدة طويلة من الزمن في النظريات المالية التقليدية التي تتبنى افتراضات عقلانية المستثمرين في هذه الاسواق وصعوبة تحقيق الارباح غير الاعتيادية او التفوق في السوق في ظل توفر المعلومات للجميع والتجانس في تفسير هذه المعلومات من قبل المستثمرين. ولكن المدخل الجديد في المالية وهو المالية السلوكية اثبت عدم عقلانية المستثمرين كما يراهم اصحاب المالية التقليدية وأن لديهم العديد من الانحرافات عن السلوك العقلاني عند اتخاذ القرار بسبب معاناتهم من بعض التحيزات الادراكية والنفسية التي تؤثر في عملية اتخاذ القرار. ومن هنا استندت البحث الى مشكلة متمثلة بعدم ادراك المستثمرين في أسواق الاسهم بمعاناتهم من التحيزات الادراكية التي قد تقودهم دون شعور منهم لاتخاذ قرارات تزيد من المخاطرة دون تعويض ملائم للعائد. حاولت البحث إظهار الدور الذي تلعبه تحيزات الثقة المفرطة وسلوك القطيع والتفاؤل المفرط في عملية اتخاذ القرار للمستثمرين في سوق الاسهم. واعتمدت البحث استمارة الاستبانة كمقياس لهذه التحيزات واجريت في عينة من المستثمرين في سوق العراق للأوراق المالية. وتم استخدام الاساليب الاحصائية التي تساعد في الكشف عن وجود هذه التحيزات وتأثيراتها في عملية اتخاذ القرار. وتوصلت البحث الى أن للثقة المفرطة وسلوك القطيع والتفاؤل المفرط تأثير معنوي احصائيا في عملية اتخاذ القرار بأبعادها المتكونة من حجم التداول ومستوى التنويع والموقف من المخاطرة.
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