طريقة بيز لتقدير المعولية الضبابية لتوزيع فريچت باستعمال المحاكاة

مهدي وهاب نصر الله; بشار خـالد علي

المؤلفون

مهدي وهاب نصر الله
بشار خـالد علي

الكلمات المفتاحية:

بيانات حياة ضبابية، توزيع فريچت، تقدير المعولية، تقدير بيز

الملخص

في هذا البحث سيتم تقدير معلمات توزيع فريچت Frechet Distribution وهما معلمة الشكل Shape parameter (α) ومعلمة القيـاس scale parameter (β) باستعمال منهجية بيز عندما تكون بيانات اوقات الحياة عبارة عن ارقام ضبابية (Fuzzy Numbers) ومن ثم استعمال التقديرات التي تم الحصول عليها في ايجاد تقدير دالة المعولية الضبابية للتوزيع . وتوصل الباحثان عن طريق نتائج المحاكاة بان تقدير المعولية الضبابية يكون افضل من الحقيقية لكل احجام العينات, وان المعولية الضبابية عند تقديرات معلمات توزيع فريچت المقدرة بطريقة بيز تعطي اقل متوسط مربعات خطأ MSE واقل متوسط مربعات خطأ نسبي مطلق MAPE, وانه بزيادة حجم العينة فان متوسط مربعات خطأ MSE ومتوسط مربعات الخطأ النسبي المطلق MAPE يتناقص الى ان يصل اقل قيمة عند حجم العينة n=500

المراجع

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